New Year’s Eve Message

By John Ogilvie

As 2025 draws to a close, it’s natural to reflect on the year gone by and contemplate what lies ahead. In a time of political and social turbulence, anxiety about the future can feel overwhelming – fuelled further by a media landscape that relentlessly amplifies negative stories while downplaying triumphs. This skewed lens distorts our view of reality, breeding unnecessary fear.

For our New Year’s Eve message, let’s confront one of the most persistent and damaging scare campaigns of our era: the doomsday prophecy that humanity is hurtling toward ruin. By the end, my hope is that you’ll feel empowered. Armed with the truth that optimism isn’t naïve, it’s the engine of progress.

Doomsday Prophets Grab Headlines

Today, apocalyptic warnings have gone mainstream. Pundits and politicians routinely invoke “saving the planet” to justify sweeping new taxes and regulations. Environmental protests fill Western cities, driven by sincere believers convinced that catastrophe is imminent without radical societal upheaval. Many even champion “degrowth,” deliberately reversing economic progress and undoing decades of human advancement.

Why do so many embrace this bleak vision?

Neo-Malthusianism

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, American biologist Paul Ehrlich took the world by storm with the release of his 1968 book The Population Bomb . He argued that rapid population growth would outstrip the Earth’s finite resources, leading to widespread famines, societal collapse, and mass starvation by the 1970s or 1980s.

The book became a bestseller with over 2 million copies sold. Paul Ehrlich became an instant celebrity, appearing more than 20 times on The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson. Ehrlich’s work was highly influential, and his ideas profoundly shaped modern environmentalism.

But there’s just one problem: Ehrlich was spectacularly wrong about everything.

Exposing an Apocalypse Salesman – The Simon-Ehrlich Wager

American economist Julian Simon was a champion of human ingenuity and free markets as the solution to resource challenges. He explained his view in the 1981 book The Ultimate Resource , where he argued that people are not a drain on resources but rather the key to abundance through innovation, technology, and substitution. Simon viewed population growth as a positive force, as more people means more innovators and problem-solvers.

This optimistic view of humanity obviously clashed with Paul Ehrlich’s pessimistic narrative. This disagreement culminated in a 1980 wager. Ehrlich and several colleagues selected five commodities (chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten) and bet that they would cost more in the future due to growing demand and depletion. If the real (inflation-adjusted) prices of these metals increased between September 1980 and September 1990, Simon would pay Ehrlich the difference; if they decreased, Ehrlich would pay Simon. In 1990, it was time to see who emerged victorious.

Simon won decisively. Prices dropped an average of 57%, thanks to human ingenuity discovering new supplies and alternatives. None of Ehrlich’s dire predictions materialized. Global famines never struck, life expectancy soared, and poverty plummeted.

The great tragedy of this is that while Simon was ultimately proven right, much of the damage had already been done. Ehrlich’s ideas fuelled horrific policies. Governments in countries all over the world, notably India and China, introduced forced sterilisation campaigns, and coerced millions of people into having abortions.

Ehrlich himself has never admitted that he was wrong and has even refused to apologise for the numerous human rights abuses that were carried out at least in part due to the influence of his book. After a 2023 appearance on 60 Minutes where Ehrlich spouted his typical alarmist nonsense, many were quick to point out his record of false predictions. In response, Ehrlich took to Twitter (now X) and wrote,

“If I’m always wrong so is science, since my work is always peer-reviewed, including the POPULATION BOMB and I’ve gotten virtually every scientific honor.”

To paraphrase one Twitter user’s response, the fact that Ehrlich’s work passed peer review is quite possibly one of the best arguments against the value of peer review.

Why Is Ehrlich Still Taken Seriously?

Fear sells. Media outlets crave dramatic headlines, rarely mentioning Ehrlich’s failures or the Simon-Ehrlich wager. Academic inertia plays a role too. Generations trained on his work resist admitting error. Most disturbingly, his ideas conveniently justify expansive government control, appealing to those eager for power while dismissing critics like Simon or Bjørn Lomborg as “deniers.”

Meanwhile, Julian Simon (the proven victor) remains largely unknown outside of economic and political science circles. This imbalance is emblematic of our age: Doomsayers are lionized as prophets, while optimists are sidelined as dreamers. Pessimism breeds stagnation, coercion, and despair.

But it doesn’t have to be this way.

Embrace Optimism, Innovation, and Liberty

History proves Simon right: Human creativity has delivered cleaner air and water in wealthy nations, lifted billions from poverty, extended lifespans, and turned scarcity into abundance. Challenges remain, but they are solvable through innovation, free markets, and voluntary cooperation, not degrowth or control.

Pessimistic thinking isn’t just misguided, it’s dangerous. It sucks the life out of people, erodes hope, and justifies oppression. Optimism, by contrast, unleashes potential. It inspires breakthroughs, builds resilience, and creates a better tomorrow.

As we step into the new year, let’s choose Julian Simon’s vision: Celebrate innovators solving real problems. Support leaders who trust freedom over force. Approach challenges with confidence in human potential.

The best is yet to come. Not despite us, but because of us.

Happy New Year!