Paul Ehrlich (1932–2026): A Life of Warning, and a Reminder of Human Resilience

By John Ogilvie

It has come to our attention that American biologist Paul Ehrlich passed away on March 13, 2026, at the age of 93. We extend our sincere condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues during this time of loss. Whatever one thinks of his ideas, Ehrlich dedicated decades to what he genuinely saw as urgent warnings about humanity’s impact on the planet.

As readers will recall from our New Year’s Eve message , Ehrlich’s 1968 bestseller The Population Bomb painted a terrifying picture of impending famine, resource collapse, and societal breakdown unless drastic, authoritarian interventions curbed population growth. Those predictions captured global attention and shaped policies in many nations.

Yet history took a different path. Global population has more than doubled since the book’s publication, yet famines on the scale Ehrlich foresaw never materialised. Life expectancy rose dramatically, extreme poverty plummeted, and human ingenuity, through innovation, markets, and voluntary cooperation, delivered abundance where scarcity was predicted.

This contrast brings us back to Julian Simon, the economist who challenged Ehrlich head-on. In their famous 1980 wager , Simon bet that commodity prices (for five metals: chromium, copper, nickel, tin, and tungsten) would fall over the decade, reflecting humanity’s ability to find substitutes, improve efficiency, and expand supply. Ehrlich bet on rising prices due to depletion. Simon won decisively. His victory wasn’t luck; it embodied his core belief that people are the ultimate resource, solving problems through creativity.

Simon’s ideas proved prophetic, yet he remains largely unknown outside specialist circles in economics and political science. Meanwhile, Ehrlich (whose warnings influenced coercive measures like forced sterilizations in parts of India and China) received prominent obituaries in outlets such as The New York Times , The Washington Post , and The Telegraph .

This disparity highlights a broader pattern: Doomsday narratives often garner headlines and honors, while evidence-based optimism struggles for recognition.

At Backbone Australia, one of our core missions is to champion that optimism, even when the outlook appears bleak. Human progress isn’t inevitable, but it is possible when we trust in freedom, innovation, and individual potential rather than top-down control.

To close on an uplifting note, we recommend watching this recent lecture by Marian Tupy, founder of HumanProgress.org

Marian carries forward Julian Simon’s spirit, using rigorous data to demonstrate how life has improved across virtually every measurable dimension, from food availability to lifespan to environmental quality in many places. His work reminds us that facts support hope, not despair.

The future is built by people who choose to believe we can solve problems, and then get to work doing it.