The Liberal Party – Future?

By John Ogilvie

It’s safe to say that the Australian Liberal Party has been throughly humbled over the past 12 months.

Last year’s federal election brought the Party to just 27 seats in the House of Representatives (down from 39), including the loss of the then-leader’s own seat. State elections have offered little comfort. In South Australia’s March poll, the Liberals were crushed to a mere five seats in the House of Assembly, while One Nation surged past them on primary vote and secured four seats of its own.

This reflects polling trends since the 2025 Federal Election. At both the Federal and individual state level, One Nation is outperforming the Liberal Party.

More recently, there was the embarrassing preselection fiasco in Victoria with Moira Deeming.

In addition to losing support in the polls, the Liberal Party is also facing major challenges with its membership. The Party is failing to recruit new members faster than they are losing existing ones, and its current membership base is becoming increasingly impatient with the Party leadership.

Does it Even Matter?

Many will ask, “Why should I care if the Liberal Party is in decline?” Many on the left will cheer the Liberal Party’s slide for obvious reasons. A significant portion of the right, meanwhile, believes the Party has abandoned core values and deserves to be replaced.

But here’s the uncomfortable truth: there is currently no credible alternative capable of forming government in the near term. One Nation’s support remains heavily concentrated in regional areas, and the party still carries baggage from its 1990s origins that limits its broader appeal. It is unlikely to win government on its own any time soon.

That doesn’t mean One Nation lacks power. By securing the balance of power in the Senate or state upper houses, it can exert massive influence over legislation and force Labor to negotiate. In other words, One Nation doesn’t need to govern to reshape Australia’s political landscape.

The Path Forward?

I attended a discussion night with Tom White (Liberal candidate for Curtin at the 2025 Federal Election) back in March. He made a number of obserations about the direction of the Liberal Party, but there were two that stood out to me:

Authenticity Matters:

The public can smell inauthenticity like a shark smells blood in the water. Read the Liberal Party’s “We Believe” statement and you’d think it stands for small government, civil liberties, and economic freedom. The lived reality in office has often told a different story. Voters notice the gap between rhetoric and action.

By contrast, love them or hate them, Pauline Hanson and One Nation are transparently who they are. That honesty resonates, even with people who disagree with the policies.

Be Willing to Admit Faults/Mistakes

This is one of the most important points.

Both major parties treat admitting mistakes as political suicide. Take the Port of Darwin lease to a Chinese company under a Liberal government. When it became clear the decision was flawed, the Party’s response was evasion, justification, or (bizarrely) blaming Labor, anything but a straightforward apology and a commitment to do better.

Acknowledging errors isn’t weakness. It’s evidence of introspection and a genuine desire to improve. Honesty like that would go a long way toward rebuilding public trust.

Future?

The Victorian Liberals managed to hold the seat of Nepean in a recent by-election despite a punishing 9.6% primary vote swing against them. The upcoming Farrer by-election will be a far more revealing test. Angus Taylor has already signaled a more pragmatic approach by striking a preference deal with One Nation.

One thing is certain: Australian politics is undergoing a monumental shake-up. Only time will tell if the Liberal Party can rediscover its purpose, reconnect with its base, and adapt to the new political reality.